Forest of Dean Net Zero
So is the Forest of Dean blessed with abundant clean renewable resources? With the construction of the required number of solar 'farms' and wind turbines, quite probably. Tidal lagoons are a non-starter because if they were going to contribute anything by 2030 then construction should already be under way, and it isn't.
At this point, some assumptions and numbers are necessary. The assumptions are quite simple; 1: Net Zero means (almost) no consumption of Oil, Gas or other carbon based fuels and 2: All of the energy that we relied on from Oil and Gas will be replaced by Electricity, which means Electric heating and Electric vehicles, which will lead to a significant increase in the amount of Electricity required by the district. A reasoned estimate is that, by 2030, the district will require 3 times it's current electricity capacity. Here is a graph showing possible routes to that target:
What needs to be done to meet the target, as shown by the dashed green line? Assuming that solar and wind each supply one half of the requirement, then an additional 322 wind turbines of the size of that at Alvington Court plus an additional 1743 acres of solar panels will be required to get to the 2030 target of renewable energy self sufficiency.
Will the target be met? Is it possible to build 64 wind turbines and 349 acres of solar panels each year between now and 2030? As they used to say in old mathematics text books: "The proof is trivial and is left as an exercise for the reader". If the proof does not appear trivial, bear in mind this from Octopus Energy: "On average, it takes 5.4 years from planning submission to commissioning an onshore wind farm in the UK".
In it's "Climate Emergency Strategy and Action Plan 2022 - 2025" the Council quite rightly states: "A district council cannot also be a climate science expert". It may also wish to reflect on it's level of expertise in Energy Systems and Supply. The Forest of Dean District Council should think very seriously about pursuing a policy that has net zero likelihood of success.
Footnotes:
a) In the original declaration of a 'Climate Emergency' Councillor McFarling stated "The
district has huge carbon sequestration potential with 27,000 acres of public forest estate". In the 'Climate Emergency Strategy and Action Plan 2022 - 2025', the claim is again made that "Due to its natural landscape, the Forest of Dean also acts as a carbon sink". Councillor McFarling is claiming the carbon (dioxide) sequestration potential of 27,000 acres of public forest estate, owned by Forestry England (there's a clue there in the boldface) to offset the carbon (dioxide) emissions of the district. The Carbon Dioxide sequestration potential of the 27,000 acres of public forest is a National asset, to be shared equally amongst all the districts/citizens of England. Sorry Councillor, your proposal just doesn't wash unless you intend to declare the Forest of Dean an independent republic. That said, if you seriously believe in energy self-sufficiency by 2030, perhaps that is your intention.
b) The Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero (Ed Milliband) recently wrote to the CEO of NESO asking for details of how to achieve a Clean Power Grid. NESO has given this response. Reading the report reveals that at 5% of electricity generation in 2030 will be from natural gas for "Security of supply" and for "filling shortfalls during periods of low renewable output". A total of 35GW of gas generation will still be required nationally in 2030. So our Council claims to be able to achieve something that cannot be achieved nationally? Hubris indeed
About the author: I have a diploma in Electrical and Electronics Engineering from Birmingham City University and a career in design and development of power control systems and instrumentation.